The Bulgarians of Bessarabia in the 1940s: factors of the demographic process. Population size and age-sex structure

Abstract

The article examines the demographic transformation mechanisms among the Bessarabian Bulgarians in the 1940s under the influence of repression, resettlement, and the 1946–1947 famine. It analyses the interaction between endogenous demographic reproduction factors and external socio-economic transformations in the 1940s. These processes resulted in changes in the age-sex structure of the population, revealing the coexistence of two parallel models of population reproduction – the stationary and the progressive. Some village communities within the “progressive” model retained the key characteristics of an extensive development path. In other settlements, had it not been for the forced relocations and the famine of 1945–1948, the transition from the progressive to the stationary demographic model could have been considered complete by the mid-20th century. The author concludes that the tragic events of the 1946–1947 famine emerged as one of the most powerful exogenous factors in the demographic transformation of Bulgarian society. The famine’s impact was reflected in an almost sixfold increase in overall mortality compared to the preceding period. The most vulnerable groups were children and the elderly. The social turbulence of the 1940s resulted in demographic losses equivalent to approximately one-sixth of the Bessarabian Bulgarian community.